What is Robotics?
Robots are systems that can autonomously think, design and execute tasks. Apart from executing the processes independently, robots also expand human competencies and can replace certain human functions. The inbound revolution as a result of robotics and automation is fast growing, as increasingly expansive technological advances in automation, artificial intelligence, energy storage, sensing, and machine learning converge. The continuously expanding reaches of robotics will result in a significant transformation of their ability to replace menial and even creative tasks currently performed by humans. In 2021, the robot install base globally tripled in the past two decades, to 2.25 million. Macro and micro trends suggest the robot install base will only continue to grow exponentially over the next decade, reaching close to 20 million by 2030. Of the global base, 14 million robots install base is projected in China alone by 2030 according to the International Federation of Robotics. The consequences of this robotic revolution are enormous and present new and ever-expanding challenges for policy drivers and governments worldwide.
Yearly Robots Deployment, 2011-2021 (Thousand Units)
The robotic revolution will have positive impacts on the workforce and economy with productivity and economic growth both driven by the projected increase in automation. This will result in the creation of new jobs in evolving industries. But it is not just new industries that will be affected. Existing business models in many sectors will also face intense disruption with millions of jobs being lost. This begets the question, Will robots reduce Human employment? According to an Oxford Economics estimate up to 20 million manufacturing jobs are set to be lost to robots by 2030. This impact will just be on the manufacturing sector. According to World Economic Forum (WEF), over one-third of jobs are at risk of being partially or fully replaced by automation by 2040 in the U.S. The WEF states that automation will supplant about 85 million jobs overall by 2025 across the world. This does not include those jobs displaced into new roles either. This massive impact of the Robotics industry is only starting to be witnessed and will continue to drive global policy for the next few decades.
Number of Manufacturing Jobs Lost to Robots, 2019-2030 (Millions) – Will Robotics replace Human Jobs?
Source: Oxford Economics
The Rapid Evolution of Robotics Industry: State of Robotics
Historically, the robotics industry has focused on creating robots that perform repetitive tasks at a faster pace or function in hazardous or environmentally deteriorative areas where humans would be unable to work. But, due to recent advancements in machine learning and artificial intelligence, we are set to increasingly witness human-to-robot interactions and functions in the future through the deployment of Robotics with AI technology. The robotics sector is projected to develop significantly over the coming years from simple automation to more comprehensive adoption. As per BCG, the robotics sector could be worth over $250 billion by 2030. A significant share of this industry growth will come from professional services robots focused on replacing human tasks such as cleaning, delivering, and transporting. Although the robotics sector has existed for many years, it’s only in the last few decades that robotics has grown in complexity and usage. Nowadays, there are many practical applications for robots across a wide range of fields. These fields include the following.
Current Use Cases for Robotics – Why Robotics is Important in the Future
Robotics is already in use all around us, from automated machines that assemble cars to virtual assistants that can help us with basic household functions through Human-Machine Interfaces. However, their usage is rather limited and they are not currently capable in all areas of life. Improvements in AI and robotic capability however are changing this and driving the usage of robots in niche and specific application areas which were hitherto thought to be a distant vision.
Industrial Robots Import Scenario, 2022 (% of Global Imports)
Source: OEC World Observatory
From Surgery to Security: The Impacts of Robotic Training in Medical, Police, Industrial
One of the application areas where robotics is playing an increasingly vital role is training. Robots have become advanced enough that human interaction in terms of training assistance is an increasingly deployed role for these robots. As with the early deployment of robotics, one of the first use cases for training robots has been in the Medical sector, particularly surgery. Rather than relying on senior surgeons for assistance in the training process, working in conjunction with robots during training as well as actual surgeries improves the efficiency of medical training as well as eases the workload for senior surgeons to be more focused on non-repetitive tasks. Robotic surgery has become a viable solution, especially for more difficult surgeries.
This is not limited to the medical sector either with training robots playing a progressively vital role in every industry ranging from police and law enforcement, to industrial to corporate sectors. Rather than being deployed to replace workers, companies are increasingly deploying robots to assist with training workers and create more jobs through this process, particularly surrounding robotics engineering and operation. Many skilled worker industries such as welding have seen a shortage in the workforce. With a lower pool of employment for both skilled and manual labor jobs as well as there being fewer experts left to be able to train new workers for more specialized manual labor positions, this has created a massive imbalance. Enterprises are increasingly selecting industrial robots for worker training. These robots are not only used to train workers in new skills but they can also be used to train workers on the operation of robotics themselves utilizing robotic teaching cells. Education for employees on robotics and their functionality is a major task for companies using a mix of manual labor and robot automation. Thus, Robotic teaching cells can themselves help in training employees on how to operate and troubleshoot a robot thus expanding their skillset and allowing increased robotic deployment.
With robots starting to enter the police force, the application areas of robots in the law enforcement sector continue to grow. This is particularly growing in the field of bomb defusal robots. However, it is a question if these robots will improve or impede the bomb disposal process for the police if the robots are deployed on a large scale. But, considering that hundreds of police departments across the U.S. as well as globally have started utilizing robots for specific applications, these systems are almost certainly going to play a much bigger role in the next few years.
In the corporate world meanwhile, the convergence of robotics and AI is creating robots with increasingly diverse capabilities. AI-based software has been used to analyze the user’s preferences, interests, and even skills and knowledge gaps in eLearning/eTraining applications. This has extended beyond data gathering and increasingly focused on suggesting what courses might be best to take next. This means that training professionals — or their robot replacements — could design a completely personalized learning path or curriculum. A major challenge that curriculum designers and eLearning teachers face is content creation time. This is where machine learning and robotics can step in. An “intelligent” machine can collect and combine data from various online sources in a matter of seconds and thus design instructional material without a significant hassle or timeline. This way, companies can create even more courses in even less time and expand learning to a much broader audience. This utilization of robotics to reduce more mundane tasks allows companies to increase the efficiency of their training program thus enhancing further robotics deployment.
Redefining the Last Mile: The Emergence of Shipping and Delivery Robots
Another use case where robotics is starting to be deployed is in the shopping and delivery industry. The deployment of Robotics in the retail, transportation, and logistics sectors is still largely in its initial stages. Presently, these sectors utilized robotics for pick and place and stocking applications only in both retail stores and warehouses. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg as their applications can be significantly more far-ranging. Supply chains continue to increasingly deploy robotic solutions. When it comes to deploying autonomous deliveries, while long-term goals such as the autonomous truck market get more attention, there are broader uses of robotics. Home delivery robots and last-mile delivery robots have already started being adopted. Delivery robots are very much a reality and have quickly become a game-changing technology in the retail and logistics sectors. These delivery robots are packed with sensors, from cameras with machine vision to radar, and ultrasonic sensors which can detect solid objects like curbs and walls. One of the most difficult and expensive aspects of the supply chain is the last mile and home delivery. Autonomous last-mile delivery robotics is one of the major changes that can assist in the e-commerce boom that has magnified the last-mile delivery sector.
Investment into Autonomous Delivery Companies, 2018-2022 ($Bn)
Source: Robotics Report
As the battle continues between brick-and-mortar stores and online retailers, robotics has become increasingly prevalent in both markets. The Rates of shoppers opting to purchase products and services online continues to rise quickly leading to a significant amount of investment in E-Commerce supply chains even from brick-and-mortar retail stores. This has been a problem for retailers for a number of years and has been significantly exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. These physical store owners have looked to unique experiences as a key driver to bring customers back into stores and differentiate themselves from online competition. One such innovation is the deployment of robots, particularly social robots. An example of this is Marty, a retail service robot that was trialed in over 500 supermarkets throughout 2019 in the U.S. The robot was focused on roaming the aisles and alerting staff of any urgent matters related to stock and customers. Meanwhile, Japan’s oldest department store, Mitsukoshi, as an early step into automated receptionists back in 2015 deployed a realistic humanoid, ChihiraAico. The scope of robotics in retail is expanding as well. Telepresence robots are also becoming a more frequent sight, particularly with cutbacks in staff numbers in physical stores due to Covid-19 and the lowering of store margins. This usage is expanding out of retail stores and into the hospitality sector as well. For instance, Kellogg’s, a leading Food manufacturing company, sought to enhance customer experiences with the Temi robot in their Union Square café in New York. As well as offering value to staff and customers alike, this proved to be a great marketing piece for the brand. These sort of case studies showcase the humanizing and interactive experience offered by social robotics in the retail space.
E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales (%)
Source: Axel Springer
Beyond Fun and Games: Creative Robotics in Entertainment
The Robotics industry has been a growing essential tool in the media and entertainment industry over the last decade. The applications for robotics in the entertainment sector have expanded from enhancing scenes in film and TV through innovative cameras and angles and utilization in amusement park rides to much more varied and advanced functions. As robotic capabilities continue to grow the use cases rise as well. One particular area where robotics has been utilized to great success has been the utilization of robotic stunt doubles instead of human stunt doubles on film and TV sets. The robotic machinery allows for increasingly complex, and highly dangerous scenes to be shot which would be limited when using a human stunt double. The robotic entity can instead offer many more possibilities as a creative team can get the most out of the shot on-screen. Another popular use case of robotics in the entertainment sector has been in lighting, camera, sound, and rigging overall. This sector has been an early adopter of robotics but the applications have significantly expanded in recent years with utilization in live events. Live concerts have been setting up complex rigs using robotics to capture bespoke angles and for advanced synchronization. This same technique is utilized in live sports as well including soccer, American Football, and Basketball.
Apart from this, robotic amusement park rides have also become a mainstay at amusement parks as well as carnivals around the world and deployments of robot servers in restaurants and at exhibitions continue to grow further. Theme parks in particular have been expanding the scope of use for robotics in the entertainment industry. Some theme parks like Disney World are experimenting with autonomous robots to entertain park visitors as well. The robots are an excellent way to keep visitors engaged during the transition between park attractions further buffed by the entertainment quotient of these robots as well. In the future, these robots will likely be replaced by increasingly technologically advanced, emotionally intelligent social robots that can socialize with humans. These growing applications will lead to a significant rise in the deployment of robotics in the Entertainment sector.
Space Exploration Robotics: Missions Beyond Earth
The usage of robotics in the space industry has been a consistent presence for the last few years. However, the history of robotics in space goes back much further. The first robotic spacecraft was launched by the Soviet Union (USSR) on 22 July 1951. However, new developments in robotic technology are significantly pushing the frontiers of space exploration. The risk-averse nature of human space travel has led to robots being utilized instead of the extra engineering and multiple redundant systems as we demand to reduce risk to astronauts as well as additional support crew which would be required on manned space flights. In terms of crewed spacecraft, exploration of Venus and Mercury is difficult due to the heat of these planets. Similarly, the asteroid belt and Jupiter are excessively cold. The longer travel times to these worlds would result in significant radiation exposure as well as health issues such as bone loss and muscle atrophy. As a result, space exploration missions have been increasingly shifting towards unmanned and robotic technology. However, recent years have showcased that both unmanned and crewed space exploration are synergistic and mutually dependent. Robotic exploration is necessary to enable and further drive human exploration by enhancing technological development, providing critical information, and reducing the risk to humans as well.
Robots in Space Timeline - Early Space Era
Robots in Space Timeline - Modern Space Era
Improvements in robotic technology have raised the rate of these experiments with more tasks being delegated to robots rather than to humans. While humans have set foot on the Moon, scientific knowledge of conditions on planets including Mars, Venus, Titan, and Jupiter comes almost exclusively from exploration conducted by robots. Technological progress improves the robotic capability to explore space further and provides humans with significantly more data about conditions in space. The latest advancements focus on helping astronauts in the more dangerous exploratory tasks. These robots include R5 aka Valkyrie, a six-foot-tall, 132kg humanoid robot. This robot was designed to help astronauts perform a wide range of tasks in space including repairs such as maintaining solar and electrical panels as well as exploring and collecting samples independently. This is only a stepping stone as the robots we shall use to explore space in the future will not look like the Curiosity rover or 'Star Wars' iconic C-3PO or R2-D2. Instead, we will transition from large, heavy robots and satellites to ‘nanosats’ and small, networked robots that can be deployed cheaply by the thousands. These tiny bots will form a self-organizing network that can quickly explore areas of interest and also organizes themselves into larger machines that can mine metals or develop new vehicles for future exploration.
The emergence of Robotics as a Service
The adoption of robotics across a multitude of industries has led to new business models surrounding their usage popping up. Robotics is not limited to physical solutions either. One of the major application areas that are growing with improvements in Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence is Robotic Process Automation. In this industry, one of the major trends being witnessed on this front is the integration of robotics as a service. From all indicators, robots as a service (RaaS) is growing rapidly. According to Forbes, the Robotics as a service sector will witness nearly 1.5 million installations by 2026 generating $35 billion in revenue. The usage of Robotics as a Service offers many benefits primarily surrounding cost efficiency as RaaS deployment is focused on leasing robotic devices and accessing a cloud-based subscription service rather than purchasing the equipment outright. The expensive payments for the equipment and running operating costs surrounding maintenance issues that spring up are avoided with RaaS.
Conclusion – How Robotics Will Change the World
Experts predict that robotic technology will continue growing by leaps and bounds. The advancements in robots, especially related to their ability to utilize natural language processing solutions will allow them to process and interpret conversations with humans more accurately. This will further be driven by advancements in AI and machine learning technology, with AI experts projecting that more self-aware and self-learning devices will hit the market in the midterm. Computer and machine vision will also enable high-tech robots and devices to spot, recognize and process still images and videos similar to the way a human eye would. This will further enhance robotic performance. Robotic systems of all kinds are also steadily seeing improvements in self-navigation capabilities with less input and guidance required from humans. Many companies are now set to offer the ability to train robots on digital simulations, allowing them to process millions of data points and improve their artificial intelligence and machine learning with each passing instance.
Similar to the metaverse, real robots will play a bigger role in our lives in the coming years, thanks to continuing advancements in robotics. These robots will also continue to provide technological and productivity gains in a wide array of industries. Advances in Artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning technology that powers robots will also revolutionize their adoption. By 2050, interacting with robots of all kinds will feel like second nature, and we’ll increasingly encounter them at every turn. They will not be limited to the industrial or process sectors alone. They’ll take on the role of bartenders, valets, chauffeurs, and countless other professions. They will even be deployed in creative industries such as journalism, entertainment, and music. That’s before you consider their growing presence in the workplace as well, with warehouses and shipping centers increasingly being staffed by robots both for simple pick-and-place applications as well as for human interaction. Robots that use AI and machine learning will assist in boosting the productivity and performance of employees and workplaces of the future.
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